Forecast of PV installations in 2021
Forecast of PV installations in 2021
From the perspective of module price dynamics, 2021 is not only a special year, but it is also likely to be the first year in the history of modern photovoltaics when China’s photovoltaic demand growth is equal to the global average. In the past few years, the growth of the global photovoltaic market has evolved based on dynamic changes between China and other markets. When China's growth is strong, the growth of other markets will decrease, and vice versa-this model is closely related to the supply chain. In 2021, we expect growth in most markets. However, this kind of distributed growth cannot eliminate the dominance of mainland China and the United States in global demand by increasing more than half of the world's photovoltaic power generation capacity.
The other 8 of the world’s 10 largest markets will add up to only 25% of global demand, compared with 40% in 2019. In addition, 10% is expected to come from another 10 markets. This means that we are seeing a parallel integration and differentiation. China and the United States continue to consolidate their positions, while more and smaller markets occupy the remaining demand. In other words, by 2021, we expect to have 55 markets with annual power generation between 100 MW and 999 MW, compared with 37 in 2019.
We do not expect any major changes in the top photovoltaic markets. In 2020, India is the solar market most severely affected by the Covid-19 epidemic, with installations falling by more than half compared to 2019. Developers must now do all they can to complete these postponed solar photovoltaic projects in 2021, which may make India once again the world's third largest market-unless hindered by continued high module prices.
Among other leading photovoltaic markets, we expect Australia to surpass Japan, and Spain to surpass Germany again. We also believe that France will replace South Korea, which is ranked tenth. In 2021, we will pay close attention to those emerging solar markets, such as Colombia, Peru, Portugal, Greece, Ireland, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Zambia, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia. Bidding will continue to be the main driving force for the emerging solar market, but power purchase agreement activities will also increase, and the installed capacity of commercial and industrial solar photovoltaics will also increase.
