The strategy of photovoltaic industry in 2021--- the demand is booming, and HJT industrialization begins.
The reserves of Chinese parity solar power projects are sufficient, overseas demand is rapidly recovered, carbon neutral target guides medium and long-term demand to be better, and photovoltaic demand is prosperous; HJT industrialization curtain is opened, and equipment localization is expected to accelerate HJT penetration.
Demand: the curtain of parity is opened, and the demand is prosperous
Due to the price rise of the industrial chain, it is estimated that most of the bidding projects with a total amount of 25.97gw in 2020 will be carried forward to the grid connection in the first half of 2021; in terms of parity projects, the total amount of the two batches of projects announced by the national energy administration and the projects converted from other modes to parity recently exceed 55gw. We estimate that more than 45gw of affordable projects should enter the construction grid connection cycle in 2021. It is estimated that the domestic installed capacity demand is expected to reach 50gw in 2021 and further increase to 60GW in 2022. The constraints of non fossil energy consumption ratio and other indicators will provide solid support for photovoltaic demand during the "14th five year plan". Considering the situation of various regions in the world, we predict that the global PV installed capacity will be about 120gw in 2020, which is basically flat on a year-on-year basis; the demand is expected to reach 160gw and 190gw respectively from 2021 to 2022, recovering rapid growth; considering the factor of capacity ratio, the global demand for photovoltaic modules is expected to reach 134gw, 180gw and 210gw in 2020-2022.
Supply: tight supply and demand of silicon materials and optimization of component pattern
At present, each link of the industrial chain is in different stages of the capacity cycle, showing different supply and demand patterns under the expectation of high demand. Affected by the expansion of new production capacity, the overall supply and demand pattern of silicon materials is relatively tight, and the price is expected to remain relatively firm. The new production capacity of silicon wafer will continue to be put into operation, and the overall trend of supply and demand will continue to widen, and the price still has room to fall; the dispute between 182mm and 210mm specifications is difficult to reach a conclusion in the short term. Single crystal perc battery price differentiation, large size with premium space, is expected to improve the profitability of battery enterprises. The brand and channel value of the first-line enterprises in the component link are beginning to appear, which is expected to further expand the market share and increase the industry concentration.
Technology: hjt industrialization curtain opens, equipment meets incremental space
HJT battery has many advantages, such as high conversion efficiency, large space for efficiency improvement, strong power generation capacity, short process flow and other advantages. It is a platform level technology for battery chip. With the gradual implementation of new production capacity, hjt industrialization has officially opened. On the basis of equipment localization, the initial investment of hjt equipment is expected to promote the rapid decline of investment payback period of hjt production line in the process of falling below 500 million yuan / GW, which is expected to further accelerate the industrialization progress of hjt battery. We estimate that the demand space for new equipment is expected to exceed 60 billion yuan in 2020-2025, and that in the peak year of production capacity is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan.
