What are the essential characteristics of new energy development？
Vigorously developing new energy sources, mainly wind power and solar power, is one of the keys to China's green economic and social transformation and the implementation of the "carbon reduction commitment" at this stage, and has become a social consensus, but there are fierce debates and profound differences on how to turn. (picture from solar panel mounting systems manufacturers)
On December 12, China officially announced to the world at the Climate Ambition Summit that by 2030, non-fossil energy will account for about 25% of primary energy consumption (9.7 percentage points higher than 2019), and the total installed capacity of wind and solar power will reach over 1.2 billion kilowatts (nearly 800 million kilowatts higher than 2019).
Green transformation is not only a practical need to change China's long-term over-reliance on fossil energy and resource consumption development model, but also a strategic move to improve China's voice and global influence in the future global energy and resource competition and scientific and technological innovation, reflecting the responsibility of major countries.
China has established a complete industrial chain in the field of wind power and photovoltaic power generation, leading the world in technology research and development, equipment manufacturing, construction and operation, etc.In the new development pattern of accelerating the establishment of a domestic major cycle as the main body, and the mutual promotion of international and domestic double cycles, the vigorous development of wind power and photovoltaic power generation can effectively promote the faster and better transformation of industrial advantages into economic advantages, technological innovation advantages and green development advantages.
Vigorously developing new energy sources, mainly wind power and solar power, is one of the keys to China's green economic and social transformation and the implementation of the "carbon reduction commitment" at this stage, and has become a social consensus, but there are fierce debates and profound differences on how to turn.
As for the specific transformation path, the author has analyzed in several papers, such as understanding China's "Carbon Reduction Commitment" from another Perspective, National Strategy to Transform "Energy Substitution" into "Energy Backup", and See the FOTU Phenomenon in the Energy and power industry.In particular, the paper "China's Energy Transformation needs to Vigorously Develop the coal and coal power Industry" suggests that China's energy transformation should attach importance to changing the development mode of coal and coal power industry, abandon the traditional development mode with larger scale and larger size, and establish a high-quality development mode with more emphasis on coordination, efficiency and innovation.
Recognize and direct action.The author believes that the design and practice of China's green energy transformation path must be based on a profound understanding of the essential characteristics of new energy development at the present stage.
Involving not only accelerate the development of new energy, energy electricity transformation itself, are more likely to have a significant impact on social economy green transformation, and produce a series of complicated problems (covering industry, technology, market, economic, fair) in many aspects, such as how traditional coal coal industry development, the transformation of the traditional power infrastructure, new energy and traditional energy enterprise profit distribution and so on.The author believes that the root cause of these "problem sets" is the strong synergy of the development of new energy at the present stage, that is, the vigorous development of new energy at the present stage is inseparable from the synergy of a large number of external conditions or factors, and the strong synergy is the essential characteristic of the great development of new energy at the present stage.
In terms of space-time characteristics, new energy and coal resources reflect different controllability.In space, new energy resources cannot be transported, and generally can only be converted into electric energy to realize the transfer in space (sometimes wind and solar energy can also be converted into heat energy for storage and transportation through a certain medium, but can not realize the long-distance movement of energy);The coal resources can be transported by molten iron and converted into electric energy on the spot to realize spatial transfer.In terms of time, wind power and solar power are "natural". Wind power and photovoltaic power generation are "dependent on the weather". Sunshine and wind are the premise.However, coal resources are immovable, and people can easily control their production and reserves through the ownership of the resources.To sum up, wind and solar energy resources are semi-controllable resources in space and time (including all controllable resources and controllable transformation degree), while coal resources are completely controllable resources.
In terms of technical characteristics, the large-scale development of new energy needs a lot of supporting technologies.In terms of resource opening, more and more new energy sources adopt the distributed development mode, which requires customized design and renovation of protection device setting, power flow control, connection relationship, measurement and settlement of power system.In terms of energy conversion, wind power and solar power generation need to be closely combined with meteorological forecasting technology. The accuracy, accuracy and timeliness of forecasting technology are crucial, which directly affects the determination of system scheduling plan and operation mode.In terms of power transmission, especially high rate transmission cases, grid-connected wind power and solar energy power systems provide a certain amount of flexible adjustment ability (such as coal, gas, power generation, pumped storage power generation or electrochemical energy storage, etc.) "hedge" due to wind, solar power generation on the space-time half controlled intermittent and volatility caused by the influence of the system of flexible adjustment ability will directly affect the system's given in the new energy power generation.It can be seen that new energy is a kind of energy with high requirements for technological synergy, and its large-scale development will have a comprehensive and profound impact on the technical perspective of the existing power system.
In terms of economic characteristics, the large-scale development of new energy needs to be accounted for.The economics of new energy generation usually have two algorithms.The first is the narrow economic account, which only considers the development, construction and operation costs of new energy developers. This is a small account of new energy development, reflected in the financial indicators of new energy projects, which are generally profitable now.2 it is generalized calculator - both special calculator, but also because of other stakeholders (traditional energy power generation, power grid enterprises, power users and other third parties, etc.) to develop new energy costs (such as the traditional power supply provided by one or more flexibility to provide electricity transformation costs increase, power grid enterprises to adapt to new energy power generation and given access to the capital expenditure, power users for the use of distributed power supply for capital expenditure, etc.), it is big account in the development of new energy.In the case that the existing market mechanism is not perfect enough, the big account is usually in the state of loss from the economic perspective, which also represents the economic cost that the whole society needs and is willing to pay for the green transformation from one side.At present, in the discussion of the transformation path, the economic account in the narrow sense is mostly involved, while in the author's opinion, the economic account in the broad sense has a greater and more far-reaching impact on the reality, because it can fully reflect the total cost paid by the whole society to realize green energy.Of particular concern is that, in many cases, the broad economic account is a better indicator of the input of the whole society to the development of new energy, for which some stakeholders (such as traditional power generation enterprises) sometimes have to bear the consequences of the worsening debt-to-asset ratio.
In terms of market characteristics, there are obvious differences between new energy power generation and traditional thermal power projects.The first is the difference in cost structure.The cost structure of new energy power generation projects is "one high and one low", with the majority being fixed asset investment. The fixed cost during the operation period is high (mainly fixed asset depreciation, land rent allocation, etc.), while the variable cost is low (the fuel cost is negligible), and the marginal cost is almost zero.The cost structure of traditional thermal power projects is "high at both ends", with high fixed asset investment, high fixed cost during operation and high variable cost (among which the fuel cost sometimes accounts for more than 40% and has great risk of price fluctuation). The marginal cost is high and has great volatility.The cost structure advantage of new energy power generation makes it in the power market competition in an advantageous position.Second, the interaction difference between supply and demand matching.The "all-natural" nature and semi-controllable characteristics of new energy power generation make it possible for users to have no supply of new energy power generation when the load increases rapidly (such as cloudy, rainy, and non-windy days), while traditional thermal power generation can achieve all-weather and all-weather power generation supply and complete control.At present, the market value of this excellent interaction between supply and demand of traditional thermal power has not been fully reflected by market rules, nor is it considered as a factor of "reasonable pricing".
In terms of social characteristics, large-scale development of new energy needs the support of all social parties.Government departments need to use administrative means such as planning, strategy and industrial policy to clarify the country's determination and confidence in large-scale development of new energy and send a clear signal to the market.Traditional power supply enterprises need to be well prepared for the change of market positioning, choice and preparation in terms of power quantity and flexibility value, and preparation in terms of development strategy and business layout.Power grid enterprises need to change the backward understanding that new energy is "garbage power" and "negative energy", and make preparations in terms of grid structure, dispatching rules, technological innovation, and transmission and distribution network planning, investment, construction and operation, etc., so as to make layout in advance and lead appropriately.All kinds of enterprises and residential users need to strengthen energy conservation and improve energy efficiency, actively explore and play the regulating value of demand-side resources, form a good interaction with the power system, and achieve higher economic value.Wind power and solar power enterprises should do a good job in project development investment, construction and operation, actively participate in power market transactions through technological and management innovation, improve the friendly interaction with the power system, and achieve win-win cooperation with all stakeholders.
A deep understanding of the nature of the strong synergy between wind power and solar power is essential to accelerate the green transformation of China's economy and society in a more systematic, smooth and safe manner.In the design of China's wind power and solar power specific development path proposed to focus on the following aspects:
First, we should attach equal importance to large-scale ground-based development and distributed development of new energy, and strengthen the development and utilization of distributed new energy that is close to users and meets diversified energy needs, such as integrated utilization of building photovoltaic, integrated utilization of water, fire and landscape storage, photovoltaic charging and changing facilities, and solar water heater.
Second, we will accelerate the establishment of a market system that ADAPTS to the development of a high proportion of new energy sources, attach importance to the market value of flexible resources in the power system, and improve the pricing methods and trading markets for flexible resources that are mainly determined by market supply and demand.According to "Who causes, who solves;The principle of "who benefits, who bears" establishes cost recovery channels for flexible resources.At present, the capacity market construction can be accelerated.
Third, the government may consider setting up a green transformation fund to encourage innovation in new energy technologies and provide support to traditional thermal power enterprises in technological upgrading and business innovation.
Fourth, we should attach importance to the power of science and technology. With the help of advanced information and communication technology of cloud big material shift intelligence chain, we should combine the optimization of supply structure with the establishment of good interaction of user demand, so as to realize the integrated development of digital stream, business stream, energy stream and value stream, generate new demand and create a new ecology.
